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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brescia and Modena share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brescia and Modena finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.18 xG and Modena 1.09 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against Modena attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brescia 36% | Draw 32% | Modena 32%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Modena 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brescia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Modena's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brescia 1.23 PPG, Modena 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights