Brescia 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bari (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brescia face Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bari are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Bari hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Bari winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bari have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Brescia — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bari — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 53% versus Bari 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 36% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.22 xG and Bari 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.332 / defence 1.338 | Bari attack 1.026 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.055. Brescia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 1.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bari's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Brescia games / 52 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 29% | Draw 31% | Bari 40%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Bari 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 50% | Bari 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 29% | Draw 31% | Bari 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Brescia 1.22 / Bari 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.332 / def 1.338 | Bari attack 1.026 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Bari (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bari xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Bari kick off?
Brescia vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Bari?
Brescia 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Brescia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Bari part of?
Brescia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 29% chance of winning, Bari a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Brescia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Bari?
Record (4 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 0 | Bari 4W.
What form are Brescia and Bari in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Bari (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Brescia vs Bari?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brescia's attack rating (1.33) and Bari's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.03x) against Brescia's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.24
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
Bari xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.56
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Brescia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Brescia and 1.45 for Bari, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia come into this having played 53 games, going 17W 18D 18L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.21 PPG from 53 outings (13W 25D 15L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Brescia against 1.21 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Brescia's home form reads 10W 9D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.00 points per game from 26 outings (5W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.13 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Bari in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 17W 18D 18L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Bari have gone 13W 25D 15L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Bari away?
Brescia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.50 PPG; Bari away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 6-2 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Brescia
2
Draws
4
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Bari have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bari 2-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Bari 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Brescia) and 42% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 31% of games; Bari in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 54% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Brescia's recent games and 42% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Bari tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Bari in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 15, as Brescia and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.22 xG and Bari 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.33 / defence 1.34 against Bari attack 1.03 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 29% | Draw 31% | Bari 40%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.30 PPG, Bari 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.