Benevento 2-1 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Pordenone meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 4W 2D 2L this season (8 games, 1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Pordenone have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Benevento's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pordenone half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 40% versus Pordenone 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Pordenone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.91 xG and Pordenone 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.335 / defence 1.118 | Pordenone attack 0.683 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.176. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Benevento games / 15 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 61% | Draw 23% | Pordenone 17%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Pordenone 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Benevento (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 38% | Pordenone 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 61% | Draw 23% | Pordenone 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.91 / Pordenone 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.335 / def 1.118 | Pordenone attack 0.683 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Benevento (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Pordenone xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Pordenone kick off?
Benevento vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Pordenone?
Benevento 2 - 1 Pordenone.
Where is Benevento vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Pordenone part of?
Benevento vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 61% chance of winning, Pordenone a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pordenone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Pordenone in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Benevento's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.68x) against Benevento's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.40
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.80
0.90
Pordenone xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
2%
40.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Benevento and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Benevento and 0.90 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Pordenone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento's recent record stands at 7W 4D 4L from 15 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pordenone, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 10L across 15 games — 0.47 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pordenone's away record stands at 0W 2D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 1W 4D 10L in their last 15 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Pordenone away?
Benevento's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.57 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Benevento or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Pordenone in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Benevento
0
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Pordenone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Pordenone 1-4 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Pordenone?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 29%, Pordenone 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Benevento) and 43% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 43% of games; Pordenone in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Benevento's recent matches and 43% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Benevento's recent games and 43% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Benevento edge out Pordenone 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Pordenone 2-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.91 xG and Pordenone 0.90 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.33 / defence 1.12 against Pordenone attack 0.68 / defence 1.40, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 61% | Draw 23% | Pordenone 17%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 40%, Pordenone 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pordenone's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.