Alessandria 0-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Alessandria take on Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cittadella make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta to face Alessandria in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Alessandria (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alessandria have posted 3W 1D 3L at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cittadella's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Alessandria — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cittadella — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 47% versus Cittadella 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alessandria 33% | Cittadella 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 0.86 xG and Cittadella 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.780 / defence 1.087 | Cittadella attack 0.715 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.179. Alessandria's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Alessandria games / 15 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 31% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 34%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Cittadella 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Alessandria's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 43% | Cittadella 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 31% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Alessandria 0.86 / Cittadella 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.780 / def 1.087 | Cittadella attack 0.715 / def 1.117 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cittadella xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Cittadella kick off?
Alessandria vs Cittadella kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Cittadella?
Alessandria 0 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Alessandria vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Cittadella part of?
Alessandria vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 31% chance of winning, Cittadella a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Alessandria and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Cittadella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Cittadella in?
Alessandria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Cittadella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Alessandria's attack at 0.78x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.71x) against Alessandria's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
35%
2.86
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Alessandria xG
Total xG
1.77
0.92
Cittadella xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Alessandria and 0.92 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alessandria come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 2D 9L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cittadella carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Alessandria's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Alessandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Alessandria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.13 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Cittadella away?
Alessandria's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.43 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cittadella in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alessandria
0
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Cittadella?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 1, Cittadella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Cittadella 1-2 Alessandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 43%, Cittadella 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Alessandria and 14% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cittadella in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Alessandria's recent matches and 43% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Alessandria's recent games and 14% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Cittadella tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cittadella edge out Alessandria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Alessandria 0-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 0.86 xG and Cittadella 0.92 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alessandria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Cittadella attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 31% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cittadella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 33%, Cittadella 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.