Benevento 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Benevento at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Modena at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benevento, 0 for Modena and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.24 xG and Modena 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Modena attack 0.971 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.090. Data: 0 Benevento games / 38 Modena games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benevento 36% | Draw 30% | Modena 34%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Modena 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 36% | Draw 30% | Modena 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.24 / Modena 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Modena attack 0.971 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Benevento (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Modena xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Modena kick off?
Benevento vs Modena kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Modena?
Benevento 1 - 2 Modena.
Where is Benevento vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Modena part of?
Benevento vs Modena is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 36% chance of winning, Modena a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Benevento and Modena in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.85x the league average against Modena's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.35
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.46
1.22
Modena xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Benevento and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Benevento and 1.22 for Modena, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Pre-Season
Modena
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Modena runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benevento's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Modena?
From 3 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Benevento 1-2 Modena.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Benevento 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Benevento 1-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.24 xG and Modena 1.22 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Modena attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 36% | Draw 30% | Modena 34%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.