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Poisson model rates Benevento at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Mantova haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Mantova's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.36 xG and Mantova 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Mantova attack 1.028 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 38 Mantova games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 29% | Mantova 33%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Mantova 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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