Benevento vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Empoli have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Benevento 1.00 PPG, Empoli 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benevento register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Empoli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Empoli in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 75% versus Empoli 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 50% | Empoli 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.22 xG and Empoli 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.840 / defence 1.168 | Empoli attack 0.934 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Benevento games / 41 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 27% | Empoli 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 100% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 27% | Empoli 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.22 / Empoli 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.840 / def 1.168 | Empoli attack 0.934 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Empoli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Empoli xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Empoli kick off?
Benevento vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Empoli part of?
Benevento vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 35% chance of winning, Empoli a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Empoli in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W. Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.84x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.69
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.48
1.26
Empoli xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Benevento and 1.26 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Empoli are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Empoli in 25%.
Defensively: Empoli in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Empoli in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Empoli have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Benevento or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Empoli in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 75%, Empoli 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 25% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Benevento's recent matches and 25% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 25% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.