Benevento vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie B matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Empoli have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Benevento 1.57 PPG, Empoli 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benevento register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Empoli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 57% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 43% | Empoli 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.47 xG and Empoli 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.034 / defence 1.073 | Empoli attack 0.900 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Benevento games / 45 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 41% | Draw 29% | Empoli 30%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 80% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 41% | Draw 29% | Empoli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Benevento 1.47 / Empoli 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.034 / def 1.073 | Empoli attack 0.900 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Benevento (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Empoli xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Empoli kick off?
Benevento vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Empoli part of?
Benevento vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 41% chance of winning, Empoli a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Benevento and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Empoli in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.03x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.47
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.69
1.22
Empoli xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Benevento and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Benevento and 1.22 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 3W 2D 2L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli's form line: 1W 1D 5L from 7 games, 0.57 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Benevento have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Empoli have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.86 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Empoli in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Empoli have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Empoli away?
Benevento's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.00 PPG; Empoli away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 75%, Empoli at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 50% (Empoli).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Benevento's games and 75% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 50% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Empoli tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Empoli in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.