Benevento vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Benevento at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Benevento (all games): 2W 1D 2L across 5 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cremonese have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Benevento, 0 for Cremonese and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 60% versus Cremonese 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Cremonese 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.64 xG and Cremonese 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.013 / defence 1.150 | Cremonese attack 0.868 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.156. Data: 4 Benevento games / 4 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Benevento 49% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 27%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Cremonese 3.70. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 100% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.

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