Benevento vs Cesena – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cesena at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Cesena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Cesena at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benevento — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cesena have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cesena — 0.77 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cesena trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 67% and Cesena 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 33% | Cesena 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.13 xG and Cesena 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.840 / defence 1.168 | Cesena attack 0.978 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Benevento games / 41 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 32% | Draw 27% | Cesena 41%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Cesena 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 67% | Cesena 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 32% | Draw 27% | Cesena 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Benevento 1.13 / Cesena 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.840 / def 1.168 | Cesena attack 0.978 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Cesena (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Cesena xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cesena kick off?
Benevento vs Cesena is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cesena part of?
Benevento vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 32% chance of winning, Cesena a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Benevento and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Cesena in?
Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L. Cesena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.84) and Cesena's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
32%
3.15
27%
3.68
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.45
1.32
Cesena xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Benevento and 1.32 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 0L across 3 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cesena by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Cesena in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Cesena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Cesena in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Cesena have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 67%, Cesena at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Benevento and 33% for Cesena.
On the defensive side: Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benevento's games and 100% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Cesena tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Cesena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.