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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bari cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Virtus Entella.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari beat Virtus Entella 2-0 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.40 xG and Virtus Entella 0.83 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Virtus Entella landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.89 / defence 1.31 against Virtus Entella attack 0.59 / defence 1.14, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 48% | Draw 32% | Virtus Entella 20%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 53%, Virtus Entella 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 0.94 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights