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Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari and Sudtirol finished level at 0-0 at Stadio San Nicola, Relegation Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.52 xG and Sudtirol 1.26 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.92 / defence 1.24 against Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 42% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 30%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 43%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sudtirol's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.16 PPG, Sudtirol 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights