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Serie B · Relegation Play-offs - Final

Kick-off

Fri 15 May 2026

19:00

Venue

Stadio San Nicola

Competition

Serie B

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bari Win

42%

Bari

2.39

28%

Draw

3.58

30%

Sudtirol

3.31

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.4%

Home win

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.52

Bari xG

Total xG

2.79

1.26

Sudtirol xG

42%
28%
30%
BariDrawSudtirol

2.39

42%

Home win

3.58

28%

Draw

3.31

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.74

42%

BTTS No

2.35

Clean Sheet

28%

Bari

3.54

22%

Sudtirol

4.58

Win to Nil

12%

Bari

8.47

7%

Sudtirol

15.14

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 7.8 4.9 2.1 0.7 0.2
1 9.4 11.9 7.5 3.2 1.0 0.3
2 7.1 9.0 5.7 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 3.6 4.6 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.521
λ Away (xG) 1.265
Total xG 2.786
League avg home goals 1.405
League avg away goals 1.076
Bari attack strength 0.916
Bari defence strength 1.244
Sudtirol attack strength 0.945
Sudtirol defence strength 1.181
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 76 / 76