Bari 0-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Sudtirol meet at Stadio San Nicola in Serie B (Relegation Play-offs - Final). This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bari's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Bari have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sudtirol (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Bari's favour (1.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Sudtirol edge it 4 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 15 Feb 2026, ended Bari 1–2 Sudtirol — a Sudtirol win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 54% versus Sudtirol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 43% | Sudtirol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.52 xG and Sudtirol 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.916 / defence 1.244 | Sudtirol attack 0.945 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.076. Bari's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sudtirol's projected output up. Data: built from Bari's last 76 games and Sudtirol's last 76.
Result probabilities: Bari 42% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 30%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.39 | Draw 3.58 | Sudtirol 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bari 40% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Relegation Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 42% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Bari 1.52 / Sudtirol 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.916 / def 1.244 | Sudtirol attack 0.945 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sudtirol xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Bari vs Sudtirol kick off?
Bari vs Sudtirol kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 15 May 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Bari 0 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Bari vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Sudtirol part of?
Bari vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (Relegation Play-offs - Final) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 42% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bari and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bari vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.92) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.94x) against Bari's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 76 games and Sudtirol's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.58
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bari xG
Total xG
2.79
1.26
Sudtirol xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bari and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bari and 1.26 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Bari have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 20W 28D 28L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 20W 27D 29L from 76 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Bari against 1.14 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 38 home games (14W 14D 10L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 9W 13D 16L from their last 38 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.16 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
Bari (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Bari vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 20W 28D 28L in their last 76 games (1.16 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 27D 29L in their last 76 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Sudtirol away?
Bari's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.47 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 22 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bari
4
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 May 2026: Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 60%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bari) and 47% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Sudtirol matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bari's games and 50% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bari and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bari's recent games and 47% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Bari's recent matches and 74% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Sudtirol finished level at 0-0 at Stadio San Nicola, Relegation Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.52 xG and Sudtirol 1.26 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.92 / defence 1.24 against Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 42% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 30%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 43%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.16 PPG, Sudtirol 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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