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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Bari 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Bari 1-2 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.70 xG and Sudtirol 0.94 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against Sudtirol attack 0.80 / defence 0.78, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 25% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 39%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 39%, Sudtirol 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.11 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights