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Bari cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari beat Spezia 2-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.76 xG and Spezia 0.97 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Spezia attack 0.90 / defence 0.69, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 26% | Draw 37% | Spezia 37%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 35%, Spezia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Spezia's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.14 PPG, Spezia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights