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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bari and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.46 xG and Sampdoria 0.92 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Sampdoria attack 0.83 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 46% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 20%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 36%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Sampdoria's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.17 PPG, Sampdoria 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights