🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bari and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 28, as Bari and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.73 xG and Sampdoria 1.18 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Sampdoria attack 1.09 / defence 1.33, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 49% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 24%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 35%, Sampdoria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.23 PPG, Sampdoria 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights