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Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 30, as Bari and Salernitana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.54 xG and Salernitana 0.66 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Salernitana attack 0.62 / defence 1.23, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 57% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 14%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 34%, Salernitana 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Salernitana's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights