Bari 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pisa at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pisa travel to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to take on Bari in Serie B (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bari have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bari are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pisa have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Bari, 1 for Pisa and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2024, ended Bari 0–2 Pisa — a Pisa win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 60% and Pisa 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 37% | Pisa 55%). Note also that Pisa surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.02 xG and Pisa 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.963 / defence 0.983 | Pisa attack 1.164 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.156. Data: built from Bari's last 73 games and Pisa's last 73.
Result probabilities: Bari 28% | Draw 30% | Pisa 42%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.62 | Draw 3.32 | Pisa 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bari 60% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 28% | Draw 30% | Pisa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Bari 1.02 / Pisa 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.963 / def 0.983 | Pisa attack 1.164 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Pisa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Bari vs Pisa kick off?
Bari vs Pisa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Pisa?
Bari 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Bari vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Pisa part of?
Bari vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 28% chance of winning, Pisa a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Bari vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 73 games and Pisa's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
28%
3.62
30%
3.32
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Bari xG
Total xG
2.34
1.32
Pisa xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
7%
13.60
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bari and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Bari and 1.32 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Bari have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 17W 34D 22L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 32W 20D 21L from 73 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bari.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 37 home games (12W 18D 7L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 14W 9D 14L from their last 37 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.48 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Pisa in 63%.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
Bari (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Bari vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Pisa in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 34D 22L in their last 73 games (1.16 PPG), while Pisa have gone 32W 20D 21L in their last 73 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Pisa away?
Bari's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.46 PPG; Pisa away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bari's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pisa?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 2, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2025: Bari 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Pisa?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 65%, Pisa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bari) and 46% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Pisa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Bari's games and 57% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bari and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bari's recent games and 46% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Bari's recent matches and 70% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.02 xG and Pisa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Pisa attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 28% | Draw 30% | Pisa 42%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Bari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 37
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →