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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Palermo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Bari 0-3 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.92 xG and Palermo 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bari fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Palermo outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Palermo attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 29% | Draw 31% | Palermo 40%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Palermo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Palermo's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.15 PPG, Palermo 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights