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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bari and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari and Monza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.44 xG and Monza 0.86 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Monza attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Bari 47% | Draw 34% | Monza 19%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 36%, Monza 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Monza's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights