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Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Bari 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Bari 0-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.47 xG and Juve Stabia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Juve Stabia attack 0.89 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 47% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 25%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.14 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights