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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bari and Avellino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 18, as Bari and Avellino drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.48 xG and Avellino 0.93 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Avellino attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 48% | Draw 29% | Avellino 22%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 47%, Avellino 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Avellino's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 0.94 PPG, Avellino 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights