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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Avellino and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.15 xG and Venezia 1.58 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.84 / defence 1.55 against Venezia attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 26% | Draw 27% | Venezia 46%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 50%, Venezia 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights