🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Venezia at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Avellino vs Venezia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Avellino welcome Venezia to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Avellino — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Avellino have posted 3W 1D 2L at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.

Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Venezia — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Trading Patterns

Avellino in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Venezia in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 43% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 50% | Venezia 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.15 xG and Venezia 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 0.840 / defence 1.549 | Venezia attack 0.943 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.085. Data: 14 Avellino games / 14 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Avellino 26% | Draw 27% | Venezia 46%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 2.17. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Avellino 33% | Venezia 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights