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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Avellino and Palermo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 17, as Avellino and Palermo drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 0.97 xG and Palermo 1.75 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Avellino beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.84 / defence 1.47 against Palermo attack 1.11 / defence 0.87, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 19% | Draw 26% | Palermo 54%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 44%, Palermo 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights