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Prediction vindicated as Avellino edge out Monza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino beat Monza 2-1 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.15 xG and Monza 1.05 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Avellino beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Monza attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 34% | Draw 37% | Monza 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Avellino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 0%, Monza 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Avellino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Avellino scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Monza shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.