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Stalemate at Avellino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino and Mantova finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.55 xG and Mantova 0.94 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Avellino fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mantova landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Mantova attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 48% | Draw 33% | Mantova 19%, with Avellino to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 50%, Mantova 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Mantova's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Avellino arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Avellino managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights