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Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Avellino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Avellino 1-3 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.24 xG and Frosinone 1.75 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 1.05 / defence 1.37 against Frosinone attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 27% | Draw 24% | Frosinone 49%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 52%, Frosinone 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Avellino (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights