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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Avellino and Catanzaro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 34, as Avellino and Catanzaro drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.43 xG and Catanzaro 1.77 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Catanzaro attack 1.30 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 29% | Draw 27% | Catanzaro 44%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 52%, Catanzaro 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Catanzaro's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights