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Shock result as Carrarese defy the odds to beat Avellino 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Avellino 1-2 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.98 xG and Carrarese 1.60 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Avellino fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.99 / defence 1.45 against Carrarese attack 1.08 / defence 1.53, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 46% | Draw 23% | Carrarese 31%, with Avellino to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 47%, Carrarese 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Avellino 1.32 PPG, Carrarese 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights