Avellino vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avellino at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi to face Avellino in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Avellino's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avellino at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento away from home this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Avellino, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Avellino — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Benevento — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 64% versus Benevento 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Avellino 36% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.48 xG and Benevento 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.141 / defence 0.828 | Benevento attack 0.855 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Data: 49 Avellino games / 11 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 50% | Draw 30% | Benevento 20%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 5.00. Avellino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Avellino 50% | Benevento 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 50% | Draw 30% | Benevento 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Avellino 1.48 / Benevento 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.141 / def 0.828 | Benevento attack 0.855 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Avellino (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Benevento xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Benevento kick off?
Avellino vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Where is Avellino vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Benevento part of?
Avellino vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 50% chance of winning, Benevento a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Avellino and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Avellino 0W | Draws 1 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Avellino and Benevento in?
Avellino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Avellino's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.85x) against Avellino's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.29
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.33
0.85
Benevento xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
22.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Avellino and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Avellino and 0.85 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 4W 4D 3L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Avellino against 1.45 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Avellino have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Avellino are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Avellino have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Benevento in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Benevento away?
Avellino's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.75 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since November 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 7 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Avellino
1
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Benevento?
From 1 meetings on record, Avellino have won 0, Benevento have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2026, when Benevento 1-1 Avellino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Avellino) and 0% (Benevento) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Avellino and 25% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Avellino's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avellino vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Avellino's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avellino and Benevento tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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