Ascoli 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ascoli at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Ascoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Ascoli's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.

Pisa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Ascoli, 1.50 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Pisa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Pisa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Ascoli — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Pisa — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Pisa 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 37% | Pisa 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.12 xG and Pisa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.739 / defence 0.793 | Pisa attack 0.997 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Ascoli's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ascoli's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Ascoli games / 75 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ascoli 38% | Draw 35% | Pisa 28%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Pisa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Ascoli 40% | Pisa 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights