Arezzo vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Arezzo at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arezzo vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Citta di Arezzo to face Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Arezzo (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Serie B outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Arezzo's 1.00 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Benevento's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Arezzo have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Benevento in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Arezzo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arezzo 67% and Benevento 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arezzo 100% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.51 xG and Benevento 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.981 / defence 1.367 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Arezzo games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 47% | Draw 26% | Benevento 28%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 3.57. Arezzo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arezzo as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arezzo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Arezzo 67% | Benevento 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 47% | Draw 26% | Benevento 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Arezzo 1.51 / Benevento 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.981 / def 1.367 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Arezzo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Benevento xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Benevento kick off?
Arezzo vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Benevento part of?
Arezzo vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 47% chance of winning, Benevento a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Arezzo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arezzo and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Benevento in?
Arezzo (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arezzo's attack at 0.98x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.70x) against Arezzo's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arezzo Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.89
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Arezzo xG
Total xG
2.61
1.10
Benevento xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.10 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arezzo's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arezzo by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arezzo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arezzo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Benevento in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Benevento in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arezzo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Arezzo, 67% for Benevento — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Arezzo and 33% for Benevento. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo have failed to score in 33% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Arezzo's games and 67% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arezzo vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Arezzo's matches and 33% of Benevento's.
Do Arezzo and Benevento tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.