Venezia 0-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Venezia face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Inter meet at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Inter arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Inter, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Inter winning.
It is worth noting that Inter have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Inter half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 52% versus Inter 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 54% | Inter 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.96 xG and Inter 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.733 / defence 1.162 | Inter attack 1.261 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.449. Venezia's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Venezia games / 46 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 16% | Draw 20% | Inter 64%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Inter 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Inter (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 30% | Inter 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 16% | Draw 20% | Inter 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Venezia 0.96 / Inter 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.733 / def 1.162 | Inter attack 1.261 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Inter (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Inter xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Inter kick off?
Venezia vs Inter kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Inter?
Venezia 0 - 2 Inter.
Where is Venezia vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Inter part of?
Venezia vs Inter is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 16% chance of winning, Inter a 64% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Venezia and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Inter?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 4W.
What form are Venezia and Inter in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Inter (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.73x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.26x) against Venezia's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.12.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
16%
6.26
20%
5.03
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.08
2.12
Inter xG
6.26
16%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
12%
8.36
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
2%
52.38
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Venezia and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Venezia and 2.12 for Inter, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia come into this having played 46 games, going 25W 10D 11L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.37 PPG from 46 outings (34W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Venezia's home form reads 17W 0D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.23 points per game from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.43 scored and 0.98 conceded. Venezia's scoring rate against Inter's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Inter in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Inter in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 11L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while Inter have gone 34W 7D 5L in their last 46 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Inter away?
Venezia's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.32 PPG; Inter away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Venezia or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Inter in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Venezia
0
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Inter?
From 5 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Inter have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when Venezia 0-2 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 36%, Inter 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 50% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Inter in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Venezia's recent matches and 46% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 50% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Inter tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Inter in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.96 xG and Inter 2.12 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Inter attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 16% | Draw 20% | Inter 64%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 54%, Inter 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.85. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.