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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Venezia and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.43 xG and Hellas Verona 1.35 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Hellas Verona attack 0.97 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 37% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 33%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 63%, Hellas Verona 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights