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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Milan cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.82 xG and AC Milan 1.35 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.62 / defence 0.90 against AC Milan attack 1.33 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 22% | Draw 30% | AC Milan 48%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 55%, AC Milan 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AC Milan's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.37 PPG, AC Milan 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Milan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights