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Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Venezia 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Venezia 3-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.40 xG and Venezia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Venezia attack 0.69 / defence 1.20, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 44% | Draw 32% | Venezia 24%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 43%, Venezia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights