Udinese 3-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Venezia travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Venezia — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Udinese) versus 0.80 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Udinese, 1 for Venezia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2024, ended 2–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 43% | Venezia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.40 xG and Venezia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.865 / defence 1.059 | Venezia attack 0.688 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.330. Data: 60 Udinese games / 22 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 44% | Draw 32% | Venezia 24%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Venezia 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 44% | Draw 32% | Venezia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Udinese 1.40 / Venezia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.865 / def 1.059 | Venezia attack 0.688 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Udinese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Venezia xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Venezia kick off?
Udinese vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Venezia?
Udinese 3 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Udinese vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Venezia part of?
Udinese vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 44% chance of winning, Venezia a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Udinese and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Udinese and Venezia in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.86) and Venezia's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.12
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.37
0.97
Venezia xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Udinese and 0.97 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 13W 24D 23L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 25W 13D 22L from 60 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (5W 13D 12L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.45 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Venezia in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 24D 23L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.93 PPG; Venezia away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Udinese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Udinese
0
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Udinese 3-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Venezia?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 60%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Udinese) and 63% (Venezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 27% of games; Venezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Udinese's games and 50% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Udinese's matches and 63% of Venezia's.
Do Udinese and Venezia tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Venezia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Venezia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Venezia 3-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.40 xG and Venezia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Venezia attack 0.69 / defence 1.20, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 44% | Draw 32% | Venezia 24%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 43%, Venezia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.