Udinese vs Torino Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Torino at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Torino travel to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to take on Udinese in Serie A (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Udinese stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Torino — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Torino's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Torino are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 10 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Udinese, 5 for Torino and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Oct 2026, ended Udinese 1–2 Torino — a Torino win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Torino in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 49% versus Torino 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | Torino 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.97 xG and Torino 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.709 / defence 1.286 | Torino attack 0.895 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.449. Udinese's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Udinese's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Torino's projected output up. Data: built from Udinese's last 49 games and Torino's last 49.
Result probabilities: Udinese 22% | Draw 24% | Torino 54%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.54 | Draw 4.11 | Torino 1.86. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Udinese 30% (last 10 home games) | Torino 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 21 March 2027 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 22% | Draw 24% | Torino 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Udinese 0.97 / Torino 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.709 / def 1.286 | Torino attack 0.895 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Torino (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Torino xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Torino FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Torino kick off?
Udinese vs Torino is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Torino part of?
Udinese vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 22% chance of winning, Torino a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Udinese and Torino will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Udinese vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.71x the league average against Torino's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 49 games and Torino's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
22%
4.54
24%
4.11
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.64
1.67
Torino xG
4.54
22%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
24.04
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Udinese and 1.67 for Torino, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 10D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Torino sit at 1.20 PPG from 49 outings (16W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.12 PPG, Torino on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 6W 5D 13L across their last 24 home games, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Torino have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.20 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Torino
Blended
Udinese (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Udinese vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Torino in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Torino have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Torino away?
Torino's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.96 PPG; Torino away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Udinese
2
Draws
5
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 3, Torino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Torino 2-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 38%, Torino 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Udinese) and 58% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 33%; Udinese have failed to score in 42% of games; Torino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Udinese's recent matches and 42% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Udinese and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Udinese's recent games and 58% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Udinese's recent matches and 67% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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