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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Udinese and Torino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese and Torino finished level at 2-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.19 xG and Torino 1.24 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Torino attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 35% | Draw 27% | Torino 38%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Torino 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Torino's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Udinese 1.09 PPG, Torino 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights