🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Torino at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Torino encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Torino travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024, 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Udinese's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Torino — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Torino's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 1.00 PPG, Torino 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Torino have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Udinese.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Torino winning.

It is worth noting that Torino have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Udinese in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Torino in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus Torino 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 42% | Torino 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.19 xG and Torino 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.896 / defence 1.092 | Torino attack 0.854 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.334. Data: 55 Udinese games / 55 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 35% | Draw 27% | Torino 38%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Torino 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | Torino 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights