Udinese 2-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Torino travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Torino — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 1.00 PPG, Torino 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Torino have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Udinese.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Torino winning.
It is worth noting that Torino have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Torino in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus Torino 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 42% | Torino 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.19 xG and Torino 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.896 / defence 1.092 | Torino attack 0.854 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.334. Data: 55 Udinese games / 55 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 35% | Draw 27% | Torino 38%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Torino 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | Torino 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 35% | Draw 27% | Torino 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Udinese 1.19 / Torino 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.896 / def 1.092 | Torino attack 0.854 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Torino (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Torino xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Torino kick off?
Udinese vs Torino kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Torino?
Udinese 2 - 2 Torino.
Where is Udinese vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Torino part of?
Udinese vs Torino is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 35% chance of winning, Torino a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Udinese and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
Record (6 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | Torino 4W.
What form are Udinese and Torino in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Torino (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.90x the league average against Torino's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.65
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.44
1.24
Torino xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Udinese and 1.24 for Torino, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 21D 21L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Torino sit at 1.31 PPG from 55 outings (18W 18D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.09 PPG, Torino on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 5W 11D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Torino have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 0.96 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Torino in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 21D 21L in their last 55 games (1.09 PPG), while Torino have gone 18W 18D 19L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Torino away?
Torino's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.96 PPG; Torino away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Udinese or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Torino in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Torino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Udinese's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Udinese
2
Draws
5
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Torino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Torino see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 59%, Torino 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Udinese) and 37% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 26% of games; Torino in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Udinese's recent matches and 41% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Udinese's recent games and 37% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Torino tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Torino in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Torino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Torino finished level at 2-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.19 xG and Torino 1.24 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Torino attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 35% | Draw 27% | Torino 38%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Torino 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.09 PPG, Torino 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.