🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.06 xG and Parma 0.80 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against Parma attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 41% | Draw 32% | Parma 27%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Parma 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Parma's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Udinese 1.24 PPG, Parma 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights