🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Napoli 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Napoli 1-0 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.89 xG and Napoli 1.34 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Napoli landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Napoli attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 25% | Draw 28% | Napoli 47%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Napoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Napoli's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights