Udinese vs Napoli – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Napoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Udinese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Udinese 1-3 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.77 xG and Napoli 1.36 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Napoli outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Napoli attack 1.05 / defence 0.67, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 21% | Draw 28% | Napoli 51%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 40%, Napoli 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Napoli's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights