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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Udinese 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Udinese 2-3 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.40 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Fiorentina attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 27% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 43%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Fiorentina's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights