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Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.43 xG and Cremonese 0.64 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Cremonese attack 0.65 / defence 1.34, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 56% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 17%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 49%, Cremonese 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cremonese's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Udinese 1.27 PPG, Cremonese 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights