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Dominant Bologna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Udinese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Udinese 0-3 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.46 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bologna outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Bologna attack 1.23 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 32% | Draw 29% | Bologna 40%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 49%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bologna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights